Saratoga Wind
Evaluator

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#1 Standard Workflow #1 Standard
#2 Advanced Workflow #2 Advanced



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Model Evaluation

๐Ÿ“Š Weather Model Validation & Consensus Engine • HRRR, NAM, GFS, ECMWF, GEM, ICON

๐Ÿ† Option 1: Robust Cached-Weight Consensus (Steps 7 & 8) Recommended (Top)

Blends forecasts from all 6 models using performance weights saved in your browser cache. Instantly loads using a quick parallel download.

Weights: โœ“ Default Equal

โš–๏ธ Priority Weight Overrides ? โ–ผ

Selected Model Consensus Blend

๐Ÿ† Option 2: Real-Time Live Validation & Consensus (Alternative) Less Robust (Bottom)

Downloads 7 days of actual history and past forecasts, evaluates them in real-time to calculate weights, downloads current forecasts, and averages them in a single synchronous operation. Heavy on data, slower loading time (~6-8s), and subject to recent archive data availability.

๐Ÿ“‹ Forecast Summary

Wind and weather from 6 AM to 10 PM.

Run forecast to generate daily summary.

๐Ÿ“Š Comparison active โ€” Selected Model (cyan) vs Consensus Blend (emerald). Charts overlay both datasets.

๐Ÿ“ˆ Wind Speed & Gusts (MPH)

๐Ÿงญ Wind Direction (ยฐ)

๐Ÿ“ˆ Temperature Trend

๐Ÿ’ง Humidity & Precipitation Trend

๐Ÿ“Š Barometric Pressure Trend

๐ŸŒ Map & Synoptic Overview (Morning to Evening) • HRRR (3km)

Run forecast to generate synoptic-scale analysis and planetary boundary layer wind shift projections.

๐Ÿ Race Day Hourly Breakdown

Run analysis to generate race-day hourly breakdown.

โ›ต Dynamic Race-by-Race Forecast Guides • HRRR (3km)

Select race window start/end times and count, then run forecast to generate individual race strategy guides.

๐Ÿง  Geographic Strategy Engine

Run analysis to generate wind-direction-specific geographic strategy for the selected racing area.

๐Ÿ”ฅ NWS Fire Weather / Convective Data

๐Ÿ”๏ธ Atmospheric Stability Indicators (Mixing Height & Wind Profile)

โšก Convective Analysis

Run analysis to populate mixing height inversion detection, gust potential, and wind shear calculations.

๐Ÿงญ Wind Direction Trend & Model Agreement

โ†ป Veering / Backing Analysis

Run forecast to analyze direction trends and model agreement.

๐Ÿ’จ Gust Direction Shift Analyst

โ†ป Veering vs. Backing Gust Detection

Run analysis to detect right-shifting (veering) vs. left-shifting (backing) gust patterns.

โฑ๏ธ Flying Scot vs. Thistle Race Time Reference

๐Ÿ Elapsed Time Differential by Wind Range

Flying Scot runs a slower Portsmouth DPN than Thistle (83), so FS elapsed time exceeds the Thistle target.
Formula: FS time = Thistle target ร— (FS DPN รท 83). DPN values: Light 92.0 ยท Medium 90.4 ยท Heavy 89.5.

Wind Range 40 min race 45 min race 50 min race 55 min race 60 min race
Target FS +ฮ” Target FS +ฮ” Target FS +ฮ” Target FS +ฮ” Target FS +ฮ”
Light <8 kts
DPN 92.0
40 44.3 +4.3 45 49.9 +4.9 50 55.4 +5.4 55 61.0 +6.0 60 66.5 +6.5
Medium 8โ€“12 kts
DPN 90.4
40 43.6 +3.6 45 49.0 +4.0 50 54.5 +4.5 55 59.9 +4.9 60 65.3 +5.3
Med-Heavy 12โ€“15 kts
DPN 90.4
40 43.6 +3.6 45 49.0 +4.0 50 54.5 +4.5 55 59.9 +4.9 60 65.3 +5.3
Heavy 15+ kts
DPN 89.5
40 43.1 +3.1 45 48.5 +3.5 50 53.9 +3.9 55 59.3 +4.3 60 64.7 +4.7

All times in minutes. Target = Thistle course setter's intended race duration. FS +ฮ” = extra time Flying Scot needs to finish. Med-Heavy shares DPN 90.4 with Medium (Portsmouth table has 3 bands; 12โ€“15 kt falls in medium bracket).

โ›ต Interactive Downwind Gybe Solver

Downwind Gybing Angle & VMG Calculator

Calculate optimal course-to-steer headings (gybe angles) and downwind Velocity Made Good (VMG) for the Flying Scot.

Use Forecasted Wind for Today
Set Custom Gybe Angle (TWA)
๐Ÿ’ก Downwind VMG: Sailing dead downwind (180ยฐ TWA) in a Flying Scot is slow because the Apparent Wind drops. Heating up the angle (sailing at ~142ยฐ TWA) builds Apparent Wind, which speeds the boat up enough to cover the extra distance faster.
Active Wind: 10.0 MPH @ 0ยฐ
Target True Wind Angle (TWA): 142.2ยฐ
Target Boat Speed: 5.3 MPH
Downwind VMG: 4.2 MPH

Starboard Gybe Heading: 142ยฐ
Port Gybe Heading: 218ยฐ
Total Gybing Angle: 75.6ยฐ

๐Ÿ“– Venue Profile & Local Sailing Knowledge

๐Ÿ“Š After-Race Assessment (Optional)

๐Ÿ“ Log Today's Race Conditions & Performance

Evaluate forecast accuracy and log tactical observations. This form is optional and does not block forecast checks. Data is saved locally in your browser.

Saratoga Wind Evaluator • Sailboat Racing Wind Forecast Evaluator • 2026