Saratoga Wind
Evaluator

Select Forecast Location

Alice in Wonderland Banner
Workflow Mode Selection
#1 Standard Workflow #1 Standard
#2 Advanced Workflow #2 Advanced



?



?
Model Evaluation

πŸ“Š Weather Model Validation & Consensus Engine • HRRR, NAM, GFS, ECMWF, GEM, ICON

πŸ† Option 1: Robust Cached-Weight Consensus (Steps 7 & 8) Recommended (Top)

Blends forecasts from all 6 models using performance weights saved in your browser cache. Instantly loads using a quick parallel download.

Weights: βœ“ Default Equal

βš–οΈ Priority Weight Overrides ? β–Ό

Selected Model Consensus Blend

πŸ† Option 2: Real-Time Live Validation & Consensus (Alternative) Less Robust (Bottom)

Downloads 7 days of actual history and past forecasts, evaluates them in real-time to calculate weights, downloads current forecasts, and averages them in a single synchronous operation. Heavy on data, slower loading time (~6-8s), and subject to recent archive data availability.

πŸ“‹ Forecast Summary

Wind and weather from 6 AM to 10 PM.

Run forecast to generate daily summary.

πŸ“Š Comparison active β€” Selected Model (cyan) vs Consensus Blend (emerald). Charts overlay both datasets.

πŸ“ˆ Wind Speed & Gusts (MPH)

🧭 Wind Direction (°)

πŸ“ˆ Temperature Trend

πŸ’§ Humidity & Precipitation Trend

πŸ“Š Barometric Pressure Trend

🌍 Map & Synoptic Overview (Morning to Evening) • HRRR (3km)

Run forecast to generate synoptic-scale analysis and planetary boundary layer wind shift projections.

🏁 Race Day Hourly Breakdown

Run analysis to generate race-day hourly breakdown.

β›΅ Dynamic Race-by-Race Forecast Guides • HRRR (3km)

Select race window start/end times and count, then run forecast to generate individual race strategy guides.

🧠 Geographic Strategy Engine

Run analysis to generate wind-direction-specific geographic strategy for the selected racing area.

πŸ”₯ NWS Fire Weather / Convective Data

πŸ”οΈ Atmospheric Stability Indicators (Mixing Height & Wind Profile)

⚑ Convective Analysis

Run analysis to populate mixing height inversion detection, gust potential, and wind shear calculations.

🧭 Wind Direction Trend & Model Agreement

↻ Veering / Backing Analysis

Run forecast to analyze direction trends and model agreement.

πŸ’¨ Gust Direction Shift Analyst

↻ Veering vs. Backing Gust Detection

Run analysis to detect right-shifting (veering) vs. left-shifting (backing) gust patterns.

⏱️ Flying Scot vs. Thistle Race Time Reference

🏁 Elapsed Time Differential by Wind Range

Flying Scot runs a slower Portsmouth DPN than Thistle (83), so FS elapsed time exceeds the Thistle target.
Formula: FS time = Thistle target Γ— (FS DPN Γ· 83). DPN values: Light 92.0 Β· Medium 90.4 Β· Heavy 89.5.

Wind Range 40 min race 45 min race 50 min race 55 min race 60 min race
Target FS +Ξ” Target FS +Ξ” Target FS +Ξ” Target FS +Ξ” Target FS +Ξ”
Light <8 kts
DPN 92.0
40 44.3 +4.3 45 49.9 +4.9 50 55.4 +5.4 55 61.0 +6.0 60 66.5 +6.5
Medium 8–12 kts
DPN 90.4
40 43.6 +3.6 45 49.0 +4.0 50 54.5 +4.5 55 59.9 +4.9 60 65.3 +5.3
Med-Heavy 12–15 kts
DPN 90.4
40 43.6 +3.6 45 49.0 +4.0 50 54.5 +4.5 55 59.9 +4.9 60 65.3 +5.3
Heavy 15+ kts
DPN 89.5
40 43.1 +3.1 45 48.5 +3.5 50 53.9 +3.9 55 59.3 +4.3 60 64.7 +4.7

All times in minutes. Target = Thistle course setter's intended race duration. FS +Ξ” = extra time Flying Scot needs to finish. Med-Heavy shares DPN 90.4 with Medium (Portsmouth table has 3 bands; 12–15 kt falls in medium bracket).

β›΅ Interactive Downwind Gybe Solver

Downwind Gybing Angle & VMG Calculator

Calculate optimal course-to-steer headings (gybe angles) and downwind Velocity Made Good (VMG) for the Flying Scot.

Use Forecasted Wind for Today
Set Custom Gybe Angle (TWA)
πŸ’‘ Downwind VMG: Sailing dead downwind (180Β° TWA) in a Flying Scot is slow because the Apparent Wind drops. Heating up the angle (sailing at ~142Β° TWA) builds Apparent Wind, which speeds the boat up enough to cover the extra distance faster.
Active Wind: 10.0 MPH @ 0Β°
Target True Wind Angle (TWA): 142.2Β°
Target Boat Speed: 5.3 MPH
Downwind VMG: 4.2 MPH

Starboard Gybe Heading: 142Β°
Port Gybe Heading: 218Β°
Total Gybing Angle: 75.6Β°

πŸ“– Venue Profile & Local Sailing Knowledge

πŸ“Š After-Race Assessment (Optional)

πŸ“ Log Today's Race Conditions & Performance

Evaluate forecast accuracy and log tactical observations. This form is optional and does not block forecast checks. Data is saved locally in your browser.

Saratoga Wind Evaluator • Sailboat Racing Wind Forecast Evaluator • 2026