Saratoga Wind Evaluator

🏆 Option 1: Robust Cached-Weight Consensus (Steps 7 & 8) Recommended (Top)

Blends forecasts from all 6 models using performance weights saved in your browser cache. Instantly loads using a quick parallel download.

Current Saved Model Weights ?

Equal Weights (Default 16.7% each)

⚖️ Priority Weight Overrides ? ▼

Validation Period

Validation Baseline ?

Compare with Consensus ?

🏆 Option 2: Real-Time Live Validation & Consensus (Alternative) Less Robust (Bottom)

Downloads 7 days of actual history and past forecasts, evaluates them in real-time to calculate weights, downloads current forecasts, and averages them in a single synchronous operation. Heavy on data, slower loading time (~6-8s), and subject to recent archive data availability.

📅 Entire-Day Daily Forecast Summary

Text summary of wind and weather conditions from 6 AM to 10 PM. Fits directly on your phone screen.

Run forecast to generate daily summary.

📈 Wind Speed & Gusts (MPH)

🧭 Wind Direction (°)

📈 Temperature Trend

💧 Humidity & Precipitation Trend

📊 Barometric Pressure Trend

Run forecast to generate synoptic-scale analysis and planetary boundary layer wind shift projections.

🏔️ Atmospheric Stability Indicators (Mixing Height & Wind Profile)

⚡ Convective Analysis

Run analysis to populate mixing height inversion detection, gust potential, and wind shear calculations.

↻ Veering / Backing Analysis

Run forecast to analyze direction trends and model agreement.

↻ Veering vs. Backing Gust Detection

Run analysis to detect right-shifting (veering) vs. left-shifting (backing) gust patterns.

Downwind Gybing Angle & VMG Calculator

Calculate optimal course-to-steer headings (gybe angles) and downwind Velocity Made Good (VMG) for the Flying Scot.

Use Forecasted Wind for Today

Set Custom Gybe Angle (TWA)

💡 Downwind VMG: Sailing dead downwind (180° TWA) in a Flying Scot is slow because the Apparent Wind drops. Heating up the angle (sailing at ~142° TWA) builds Apparent Wind, which speeds the boat up enough to cover the extra distance faster.

Active Wind: 10.0 MPH @ 0°

Target True Wind Angle (TWA): 142.2°

Target Boat Speed: 5.3 MPH

Downwind VMG: 4.2 MPH

Starboard Gybe Heading: 142°

Port Gybe Heading: 218°

Total Gybing Angle: 75.6°

📖 Venue Profile & Local Sailing Knowledge

📝 Log Today's Race Conditions & Performance

Evaluate forecast accuracy and log tactical observations. This form is optional and does not block forecast checks. Data is saved locally in your browser.

Which Forecast Elements Were Accurate?

Wind Speed (Predicted speeds matched actual conditions) Wind Direction (Mean directions & oscillations matched) Weather Forecast (General weather & frontal passage matched) Wave/Chop Forecast (Steepness & swell matched bathymetry) Local Current / Tide prediction matched water movement Centerboard & Rudder Weed-Clearance Diligence Practiced

Saratoga Wind Evaluator • Sailboat Racing Wind Forecast Evaluator • 2026

⚙️ #2 Advanced Workflow Sequence

For multi-model consensus blend forecasts:

⑤ Enable Model Evaluation (toggles the validation controls). ⑥ Select Baseline (ERA5 archive or local airport). ⑦ Re-Calculate & Save Weights (runs historical error evaluations). ⑧ Get Robust Consensus Forecast (combines all models). ⑨ Toggle Compare with Consensus (overlays model vs. blend).

⛵ Flying Scot Mast Rake & Rig Tuning Guide

The Flying Scot utilizes a stayed fractional rig with swept spreaders and a tabernacle mast step (no backstay or partner chocks). Rake and tension adjustments control helm and sail shape:

1. Mast Rake (Standard 28' 4 1/2" - 28' 6", User 28' 3"): Rake is measured from the masthead to the center of the transom. Raking aft (e.g. your 28' 3" setting) shifts the sail's center of effort aft, generating desirable **weather helm** upwind. This creates lift on the rudder to help point higher. Raking forward reduces helm pressure, ideal for acceleration and heavy breeze. 2. Rig Tension (Jib Halyard / Shroud Tension): Shrouds should be snugged (70-80 lbs in light air to 110-120 lbs in heavy air). Snug shroud tension prevents the headstay from sagging, which flattens the jib entry to allow pointing closer upwind. Letting the headstay sag (looser rig) rounds the jib entry for extra power in light air or chop. 3. Upwind Vang Sheeting: In heavy breeze, pull the vang tight. This bends the lower mast (flattening the main) and holds the boom down, allowing the mainsheet to be eased in gusts without the boom rising.

💡 Weather Models Evaluation Guide ×

Summary of model strengths, weaknesses, and biases based on historical evaluations for Saratoga Lake:

⚠️ Forecast Horizon Reliability Rule: The farther out a forecast window is, the less reliable the predictions become. High-resolution local models (HRRR/HRDPS) focus strictly on near-term details (18–48 hours) to maintain microscale accuracy, while global models (GFS/ECMWF) extend much farther (10–16 days) but degrade in reliability.

Model	Resolution / Max Forecast Lead Time	Strong Points / Best Use	Weak Points / Biases
High-Res Blend	2.5–9 km / 48-hour range / 4-Model Weighted Blend	Combines 35% HRRR (hourly shifts/thermal development), 30% NBM (bias-corrected sustained speeds), 25% HRDPS (local terrain channeling), and 10% ECMWF (synoptic anchor to stabilize timing errors). Absolute best general default for Saratoga Lake racing.	Requires loading four separate models (slightly higher data usage). Range is limited to 48 hours.
HRRR	3 km / 18–36 hour range / Hourly updates	Excellent for near-term hourly wind shift trends, thermal mixing, and frontal transition timing.	Tends to overpredict light-air wind speeds (by 1-3 mph). Needs NBM correction.
HRDPS	2.5 km / 48-hour range / 6-hr updates	Superior terrain resolution. Captures mountain channeling and valley funneling (e.g. Adirondack/Hudson valley flows). Goes out to 48 hours into the future.	Less frequent updates. Can get slightly stale on fast-changing front times.
NBM	2.5 km / 10-day range / Calibrated Blend	Most accurate wind speed forecasting due to historical statistical bias-corrections. Best baseline for sustained speeds.	Lacks fine-grid directional trends for specific localized thermal shifts.
ECMWF	9 km / 10-day range / 12-hr updates	Gold standard for multi-day planning (3-5 days). Best for prevailing gradient direction and front tracking.	Coarse 9 km grid misses small lake wind funnels and local thermal breeze mechanics.
GFS	13 km / 16-day range / 6-hr updates	Updates 4x/day. Good broad-brush synoptic wind patterns. Helps build planning confidence if aligned with ECMWF.	Often struggles with frontal timing accuracy and overpredicts gust speeds.
ICON	13 km / 7.5-day range / 6-hr updates	German model, fully independent from GFS/ECMWF. Excellent secondary planning opinion.	Low resolution for small-lake localized thermal breeze effects.
NAM	3-12 km / 3.5-day (84h) range / 6-hr updates	Useful for 1-2 day regional gust trends and frontal boundary locations.	Frequently overpredicts sustained winds and can lag on shift timings.
GEM	15 km / 10-day range / 6-hr updates	Canadian global model. Solid broad-brush backup opinion for planning windows.	Coarse resolution, least sensitive to local convective details.

💡 Model Weights Status & Lifecycle ×

Weather models constantly update, and their short-term local performance changes based on active pressure systems and seasons. To guarantee a premium, accurate consensus, the system tracks weights under these strict rules:

1. Expiration (24-Hour TTL)
Weights older than 24 hours are discarded. The system automatically reverts to default equal weights (16.7% each) to prevent using outdated predictive models.

2. Configuration Drift (Stale Flag)
If the active **Validation Period** or **Start Date** is changed, the weights are marked as *stale*. This alerts you that the calculated accuracy rates mismatch your current session parameters.

3. How to Resolve
Click **Step ⑦: Re-Calculate & Save Weights** to run a fresh multi-model validation. This generates and locks in brand new parameters for your active date range.

💡 Validation Baselines & Desired Results ×

The system evaluates weather model forecasts by comparing their past predictions against a historical baseline. You can toggle between two primary types of baselines:

1. ERA5 Reanalysis (Open-Meteo Archive)
* How it works: Uses ECMWF's global ERA5 reanalysis grid dataset (9 km resolution). This dataset blends millions of global physical readings using advanced physical models to reconstruct historical weather on the coordinate grid. * Desired Result: Generates a highly stable, grid-exact independent baseline. It eliminates the self-referential 0.0 error loop of the forecast model, yielding realistic historical accuracy weights.

2. NOAA Weather Stations (Physical Baselines)
* How it works: Fetches real physical sensor measurements (ASOS/AWOS) directly from the NWS API. * Available Stations: * KSCH (Schenectady Airport): 15 mi SSW. Most stable and reliable. * KGFL (Glens Falls Airport): 20 mi N. Excellent northern wind flow proxy. * 5B2 (Saratoga County Airport): 7 mi WNW. Closest station geographically. * Desired Result: Direct comparison against physical anemometers. Helps identify which model best predicts real-world ground conditions, though observations are subject to airport site geography rather than the lake surface itself.

⛵ Flying Scot Polar Performance Chart ×

This table shows optimal sailing angles, target boat speeds, and VMG targets for the **Flying Scot** based on the official VPP polar diagram data, converted to wind speeds in **MPH**.

Wind Speed	Leg Type	Target Wind Angle	Target Boat Speed	Target VMG
3.4 MPH (3 kts)	Upwind	48.7°	2.0 kts (2.3 MPH)	1.2 kts (1.4 MPH)
3.4 MPH (3 kts)	Downwind	141.5°	1.9 kts (2.2 MPH)	1.5 kts (1.7 MPH)
4.6 MPH (4 kts)	Upwind	49.3°	2.6 kts (3.0 MPH)	1.7 kts (1.9 MPH)
4.6 MPH (4 kts)	Downwind	140.5°	2.5 kts (2.9 MPH)	1.9 kts (2.2 MPH)
6.9 MPH (6 kts)	Upwind	49.8°	4.1 kts (4.7 MPH)	2.6 kts (3.0 MPH)
6.9 MPH (6 kts)	Downwind	139.7°	3.8 kts (4.4 MPH)	3.0 kts (3.4 MPH)
9.2 MPH (8 kts)	Upwind	46.3°	4.8 kts (5.5 MPH)	3.3 kts (3.8 MPH)
9.2 MPH (8 kts)	Downwind	148.4°	4.5 kts (5.2 MPH)	3.8 kts (4.4 MPH)
11.5 MPH (10 kts)	Upwind	44.7°	5.4 kts (6.2 MPH)	3.9 kts (4.5 MPH)
11.5 MPH (10 kts)	Downwind	162.7°	4.8 kts (5.5 MPH)	4.6 kts (5.3 MPH)
13.8 MPH (12 kts)	Upwind	44.6°	6.2 kts (7.1 MPH)	4.4 kts (5.1 MPH)
13.8 MPH (12 kts)	Downwind	159.3°	5.6 kts (6.4 MPH)	5.2 kts (6.0 MPH)
16.1 MPH (14 kts)	Upwind	44.6°	6.6 kts (7.6 MPH)	4.7 kts (5.4 MPH)
16.1 MPH (14 kts)	Downwind	159.8°	6.3 kts (7.2 MPH)	5.9 kts (6.8 MPH)
18.4 MPH (16 kts)	Upwind	44.7°	6.8 kts (7.8 MPH)	4.9 kts (5.6 MPH)
18.4 MPH (16 kts)	Downwind (Planing) 🚀	125.7°	10.8 kts (12.4 MPH)	6.3 kts (7.3 MPH)
20.7 MPH (18 kts)	Upwind	44.6°	7.0 kts (8.0 MPH)	5.0 kts (5.7 MPH)
20.7 MPH (18 kts)	Downwind (Planing) 🚀	126.8°	13.2 kts (15.2 MPH)	7.9 kts (9.1 MPH)
23.0 MPH (20 kts)	Upwind	44.5°	7.1 kts (8.1 MPH)	5.0 kts (5.8 MPH)
23.0 MPH (20 kts)	Downwind (Planing) 🚀	130.9°	14.8 kts (17.0 MPH)	9.7 kts (11.2 MPH)

💡 Planing Advice: In wind speeds of **18.4 MPH and higher**, the Flying Scot goes from displacement to planing mode. When heading downwind, raise your centerboard between **1/4 to 1/2** to reduce drag and pull your crew weight aft to lift the bow.

🌪️ Wind Shear Scenarios & Trim Guide ×

Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction over a physical distance (vertical or horizontal). On a sailboat, understanding shear gives you a massive speed and tactical advantage. Here are the key scenarios:

⛵ Vertical Wind Shear (Sails Twist Guide)

The Flying Scot masthead sits about 30 feet above the water. The wind at the top of the mast behaves differently than at the deck (6 feet) due to water/shore friction (surface drag).

Scenario A: High Vertical Shear (Stable Air / Cool Water)
• Atmosphere: Warm air over cool water prevents convective mixing. The wind aloft is fast and veered (shifted right) compared to the calm, backed (shifted left) wind at deck level.
• Action: Twist the sails open. Ease the vang and mainsheet slightly so the top of the main opens up to match the veered aloft wind, while the bottom stays sheeted in for the backed surface breeze. If sails are too flat, the top will stall or backwind!

Scenario B: Low Vertical Shear (Well-Mixed / Warm Water)
• Atmosphere: Cool air over warm water mixes the atmosphere thoroughly. Wind speed and direction are uniform from the deck up to the 30ft masthead.
• Action: Sheet in flat. Trim your sails tight and flat with minimal twist. There is no direction change from boom to masthead, so you can point high and hike hard.

⚡ Convective Directional Shear (Tactical Shifts)

Convective gusts mix down winds from 3,000+ feet aloft, bringing down their direction to the water and overriding surface drag.

Scenario C: Veered Upper-Levels (Right-Shifting Puffs)
• Trigger: Upper-level Transport Wind is shifted to the right of the surface wind.
• Gust Effect: Gusts will shift the wind to the RIGHT (Veer) as they hit the water.
• Tactical Rules:
🟢 Starboard Tack: Will get LIFTED (ride the shift to point higher!).
🔴 Port Tack: Will get HEADED (be ready to tack to Starboard to cash in!).

Scenario D: Backed Upper-Levels (Left-Shifting Puffs)
• Trigger: Upper-level Transport Wind is shifted to the left of the surface wind.
• Gust Effect: Gusts will shift the wind to the LEFT (Back) as they hit the water.
• Tactical Rules:
🟢 Port Tack: Will get LIFTED (ride the shift to point higher!).
🔴 Starboard Tack: Will get HEADED (be ready to tack to Port to cash in!).

Saratoga Wind

Evaluator

📊 Weather Model Validation & Consensus Engine • HRRR, NAM, GFS, ECMWF, GEM, ICON

🏆 Option 1: Robust Cached-Weight Consensus (Steps 7 & 8) Recommended (Top)

Current Saved Model Weights ?

⚖️ Priority Weight Overrides ? ▼

🏆 Option 2: Real-Time Live Validation & Consensus (Alternative) Less Robust (Bottom)

📅 Entire-Day Daily Forecast Summary

📈 Wind Speed & Gusts (MPH)

🧭 Wind Direction (°)

📈 Temperature Trend

💧 Humidity & Precipitation Trend

📊 Barometric Pressure Trend

🌍 Map & Synoptic Overview (Morning to Evening) • HRRR (3km)

🏁 Race Day Hourly Breakdown

⛵ Dynamic Race-by-Race Forecast Guides • HRRR (3km)

🧠 Geographic Strategy Engine

🔥 NWS Fire Weather / Convective Data

🏔️ Atmospheric Stability Indicators (Mixing Height & Wind Profile)

⚡ Convective Analysis

🧭 Wind Direction Trend & Model Agreement

↻ Veering / Backing Analysis

💨 Gust Direction Shift Analyst

↻ Veering vs. Backing Gust Detection

⛵ Interactive Downwind Gybe Solver

Downwind Gybing Angle & VMG Calculator

📖 Venue Profile & Local Sailing Knowledge

📊 After-Race Assessment (Optional)

📝 Log Today's Race Conditions & Performance

💡 Step-by-Step Wind Evaluator Guide ×

⛵ Flying Scot Mast Rake & Rig Tuning Guide

⚙️ #2 Advanced Workflow Sequence

⛵ Flying Scot Mast Rake & Rig Tuning Guide

💡 Weather Models Evaluation Guide ×

💡 Model Weights Status & Lifecycle ×

💡 Validation Baselines & Desired Results ×

⛵ Flying Scot Polar Performance Chart ×

🌪️ Wind Shear Scenarios & Trim Guide ×

⛵ Vertical Wind Shear (Sails Twist Guide)

⚡ Convective Directional Shear (Tactical Shifts)