Blends forecasts from all 6 models using performance weights saved in your browser cache. Instantly loads using a quick parallel download.
Weights:✓ Default Equal
⚖️ Priority Weight Overrides?▼
Adjust per-model weights for Direction (your #1 priority), Speed, and Synoptic. Scale: 0 (ignore) to 10 (max). Changes are saved and applied to the next consensus forecast.
Downloads 7 days of actual history and past forecasts, evaluates them in real-time to calculate weights, downloads current forecasts, and averages them in a single synchronous operation. Heavy on data, slower loading time (~6-8s), and subject to recent archive data availability.
📋 Forecast Summary
Wind and weather from 6 AM to 10 PM.
Run forecast to generate daily summary.
Conditions during the selected race start/end window.
Run forecast to generate race window summary.
📊Comparison active — Selected Model (cyan) vs Consensus Blend (emerald). Charts overlay both datasets.
Run analysis to populate mixing height inversion detection, gust potential, and wind shear calculations.
🧭 Wind Direction Trend & Model Agreement
↻ Veering / Backing Analysis
Run forecast to analyze direction trends and model agreement.
💨 Gust Direction Shift Analyst
↻ Veering vs. Backing Gust Detection
Run analysis to detect right-shifting (veering) vs. left-shifting (backing) gust patterns.
⛵ Interactive Downwind Gybe Solver
Downwind Gybing Angle & VMG Calculator
Calculate optimal course-to-steer headings (gybe angles) and downwind Velocity Made Good (VMG) for the Flying Scot.
Use Forecasted Wind for Today
Set Custom Gybe Angle (TWA)
Target True Wind Angle:142°
💡 Downwind VMG: Sailing dead downwind (180° TWA) in a Flying Scot is slow because the Apparent Wind drops. Heating up the angle (sailing at ~142° TWA) builds Apparent Wind, which speeds the boat up enough to cover the extra distance faster.
Active Wind:10.0 MPH @ 0°
Target True Wind Angle (TWA):142.2°
Target Boat Speed:5.3 MPH
Downwind VMG:4.2 MPH
Starboard Gybe Heading:142°
Port Gybe Heading:218°
Total Gybing Angle:75.6°
📖 Venue Profile & Local Sailing Knowledge
📊 After-Race Assessment (Optional)
📝 Log Today's Race Conditions & Performance
Evaluate forecast accuracy and log tactical observations. This form is optional and does not block forecast checks. Data is saved locally in your browser.
Follow these steps to analyze weather and strategy for your next Flying Scot regatta:
🌐 Required Web Browser:
For full feature compatibility (including geolocation, caching, and local database storage):
• On Android: Use Google Chrome.
• On iOS (iPhone): Use Safari.
⚠️ Avoid DuckDuckGo, Brave, or Firefox. These privacy-focused browsers block key web APIs (such as motion sensors or location tracking), which may cause silent failures.
1. Select Regatta Venue or Coords
Select a preset venue from the dropdown, or enter custom coordinates from your Sailing Instructions (SIs). Wave behaviors and weed forecasts load dynamically.
2. Select Weather Model
Choose a forecasting model from the dropdown. The High-Res Blend is recommended for general racing, combining HRRR, NBM, HRDPS, and ECMWF.
3. Set Dates & Racing Hours
Specify start/end dates and the race windows (Standard 10AM-5PM on weekends or 3PM-9PM on Wednesdays) to filter predictions.
4. Run Weather Forecasts
Click **Get Forecast**. The system queries NOAA NWS and Open-Meteo models, drawing wind and pressure graphs.
5. Enable Model Evaluation
Check this toggle in Advanced Mode to slide open the Model Validation and Consensus controls directly on the dashboard.
⚙️ Advanced Consensus Sequence (Steps 6-9)
6. Select Baseline: Pick a validation baseline (Saratoga County 5B2 is default) or ERA5 Reanalysis.7. Re-Calculate & Save Weights: Run historical error evaluations against your baseline coordinates.8. Get Robust Consensus Forecast: Computes a 60/40 blend of priority and validation weights across all 8 models.9. Toggle Compare with Consensus: Check to overlay individual forecasts against the consensus curve.
⛵ Flying Scot Mast Rake & Rig Tuning Guide
The Flying Scot utilizes a stayed fractional rig with swept spreaders and a tabernacle mast step (no backstay or partner chocks). Rake and tension adjustments control helm balance and sail shape:
1. Mast Rake (Standard 28' 4 1/2" - 28' 6", User 28' 3"): Rake is measured from the masthead to the center of the transom. Raking aft (e.g. your 28' 3" setting) shifts the sail's center of effort aft, generating desirable **weather helm** upwind. This creates lift on the rudder to help point higher. Raking forward reduces helm pressure, ideal for acceleration and heavy breeze.2. Rig Tension (Loos PT-1 Professional Tension Gauge): Keep shroud tension at 8 (~75 lbs) in light air to allow forestay sag and round the jib entry for power in chop. Snug shrouds to 10 (~100 lbs) in moderate air, and tension to 12 (~120 lbs) in heavy air to keep the jib flat for pointing upwind. (Measured on 1/8" wire).3. Upwind Vang Sheeting: In heavy breeze, pull the vang tight. This bends the lower mast (flattening the main) and holds the boom down, allowing the mainsheet to be eased in gusts without the boom rising.
📊 Loos PT-1 Tension Calibration Chart×
Calibration values for the **Loos PT-1** Professional Tension Gauge. Shroud tension values are shown in pounds (lbs) based on the gauge scale reading (0 to 40) for various wire diameters.
💡 Flying Scot Standard: The Flying Scot uses 1/8" wire shrouds.
The recommended tension range is:
Light Air: PT-1 scale reading 8 (~75 lbs)
Moderate Air: PT-1 scale reading 10 (~100 lbs)
Heavy Air: PT-1 scale reading 12 (~120 lbs)
PT-1 Reading
3/32" Wire
1/8" Wire (Scot)
5/32" Wire
8
-
~75 lbs
-
10
75 lbs
100 lbs
120 lbs
12
-
~120 lbs
-
15
120 lbs
140 lbs
180 lbs
20
175 lbs
240 lbs
250 lbs
22
-
280 lbs
-
24
-
320 lbs
-
25
240 lbs
-
330 lbs
28
-
420 lbs
-
30
310 lbs
470 lbs
420 lbs
35
390 lbs
-
530 lbs
40
480 lbs
-
670 lbs
💡 Weather Models Evaluation Guide×
Summary of model strengths, weaknesses, and biases based on historical evaluations for Saratoga Lake:
⚠️ Forecast Horizon Reliability Rule: The farther out a forecast window is, the less reliable the predictions become. High-resolution local models (HRRR/HRDPS) focus strictly on near-term details (18–48 hours) to maintain microscale accuracy, while global models (GFS/ECMWF) extend much farther (10–16 days) but degrade in reliability.
Model
Resolution / Max Forecast Lead Time
Strong Points / Best Use
Weak Points / Biases
High-Res Blend
2.5–9 km / 48-hour range / 4-Model Weighted Blend
Combines 35% HRRR (hourly shifts/thermal development), 30% NBM (bias-corrected sustained speeds), 25% HRDPS (local terrain channeling), and 10% ECMWF (synoptic anchor to stabilize timing errors). Absolute best general default for Saratoga Lake racing.
Requires loading four separate models (slightly higher data usage). Range is limited to 48 hours.
HRRR
3 km / 18–36 hour range / Hourly updates
Excellent for near-term hourly wind shift trends, thermal mixing, and frontal transition timing.
Superior terrain resolution. Captures mountain channeling and valley funneling (e.g. Adirondack/Hudson valley flows). Goes out to 48 hours into the future.
Less frequent updates. Can get slightly stale on fast-changing front times.
NBM
2.5 km / 10-day range / Calibrated Blend
Most accurate wind speed forecasting due to historical statistical bias-corrections. Best baseline for sustained speeds.
Lacks fine-grid directional trends for specific localized thermal shifts.
ECMWF
9 km / 10-day range / 12-hr updates
Gold standard for multi-day planning (3-5 days). Best for prevailing gradient direction and front tracking.
Coarse 9 km grid misses small lake wind funnels and local thermal breeze mechanics.
GFS
13 km / 16-day range / 6-hr updates
Updates 4x/day. Good broad-brush synoptic wind patterns. Helps build planning confidence if aligned with ECMWF.
Often struggles with frontal timing accuracy and overpredicts gust speeds.
ICON
13 km / 7.5-day range / 6-hr updates
German model, fully independent from GFS/ECMWF. Excellent secondary planning opinion.
Low resolution for small-lake localized thermal breeze effects.
NAM
3-12 km / 3.5-day (84h) range / 6-hr updates
Useful for 1-2 day regional gust trends and frontal boundary locations.
Frequently overpredicts sustained winds and can lag on shift timings.
GEM
15 km / 10-day range / 6-hr updates
Canadian global model. Solid broad-brush backup opinion for planning windows.
Coarse resolution, least sensitive to local convective details.
💡 Model Weights Status & Lifecycle×
Weather models constantly update, and their short-term local performance changes based on active pressure systems and seasons. To guarantee a premium, accurate consensus, the system tracks weights under these strict rules:
1. Expiration (24-Hour TTL)
Weights older than 24 hours are discarded. The system automatically reverts to default equal weights (16.7% each) to prevent using outdated predictive models.
2. Configuration Drift (Stale Flag)
If the active **Validation Period** or **Start Date** is changed, the weights are marked as *stale*. This alerts you that the calculated accuracy rates mismatch your current session parameters.
3. How to Resolve
Click **Step ⑦: Re-Calculate & Save Weights** to run a fresh multi-model validation. This generates and locks in brand new parameters for your active date range.
⚠️ Step Sequence Required×
💡 Validation Baselines & Desired Results×
The system evaluates weather model forecasts by comparing their past predictions against a historical baseline. You can toggle between two primary types of baselines:
1. ERA5 Reanalysis (Open-Meteo Archive)
* How it works: Uses ECMWF's global ERA5 reanalysis grid dataset (9 km resolution). This dataset blends millions of global physical readings using advanced physical models to reconstruct historical weather on the coordinate grid.
* Desired Result: Generates a highly stable, grid-exact independent baseline. It eliminates the self-referential 0.0 error loop of the forecast model, yielding realistic historical accuracy weights.
2. NOAA Weather Stations (Physical Baselines)
* How it works: Fetches real physical sensor measurements (ASOS/AWOS) directly from the NWS API.
* Available Stations:
* KSCH (Schenectady Airport): 15 mi SSW. Most stable and reliable.
* KGFL (Glens Falls Airport): 20 mi N. Excellent northern wind flow proxy.
* 5B2 (Saratoga County Airport): 7 mi WNW. Closest station geographically.
* Desired Result: Direct comparison against physical anemometers. Helps identify which model best predicts real-world ground conditions, though observations are subject to airport site geography rather than the lake surface itself.
⛵ Flying Scot Polar Performance Chart×
This table shows optimal sailing angles, target boat speeds, and VMG targets for the **Flying Scot** based on the official VPP polar diagram data, converted to wind speeds in **MPH**.
Wind Speed
Leg Type
Target Wind Angle
Target Boat Speed
Target VMG
3.4 MPH (3 kts)
Upwind
48.7°
2.0 kts (2.3 MPH)
1.2 kts (1.4 MPH)
Downwind
141.5°
1.9 kts (2.2 MPH)
1.5 kts (1.7 MPH)
4.6 MPH (4 kts)
Upwind
49.3°
2.6 kts (3.0 MPH)
1.7 kts (1.9 MPH)
Downwind
140.5°
2.5 kts (2.9 MPH)
1.9 kts (2.2 MPH)
6.9 MPH (6 kts)
Upwind
49.8°
4.1 kts (4.7 MPH)
2.6 kts (3.0 MPH)
Downwind
139.7°
3.8 kts (4.4 MPH)
3.0 kts (3.4 MPH)
9.2 MPH (8 kts)
Upwind
46.3°
4.8 kts (5.5 MPH)
3.3 kts (3.8 MPH)
Downwind
148.4°
4.5 kts (5.2 MPH)
3.8 kts (4.4 MPH)
11.5 MPH (10 kts)
Upwind
44.7°
5.4 kts (6.2 MPH)
3.9 kts (4.5 MPH)
Downwind
162.7°
4.8 kts (5.5 MPH)
4.6 kts (5.3 MPH)
13.8 MPH (12 kts)
Upwind
44.6°
6.2 kts (7.1 MPH)
4.4 kts (5.1 MPH)
Downwind
159.3°
5.6 kts (6.4 MPH)
5.2 kts (6.0 MPH)
16.1 MPH (14 kts)
Upwind
44.6°
6.6 kts (7.6 MPH)
4.7 kts (5.4 MPH)
Downwind
159.8°
6.3 kts (7.2 MPH)
5.9 kts (6.8 MPH)
18.4 MPH (16 kts)
Upwind
44.7°
6.8 kts (7.8 MPH)
4.9 kts (5.6 MPH)
Downwind (Planing) 🚀
125.7°
10.8 kts (12.4 MPH)
6.3 kts (7.3 MPH)
20.7 MPH (18 kts)
Upwind
44.6°
7.0 kts (8.0 MPH)
5.0 kts (5.7 MPH)
Downwind (Planing) 🚀
126.8°
13.2 kts (15.2 MPH)
7.9 kts (9.1 MPH)
23.0 MPH (20 kts)
Upwind
44.5°
7.1 kts (8.1 MPH)
5.0 kts (5.8 MPH)
Downwind (Planing) 🚀
130.9°
14.8 kts (17.0 MPH)
9.7 kts (11.2 MPH)
💡 Planing Advice: In wind speeds of **18.4 MPH and higher**, the Flying Scot goes from displacement to planing mode. When heading downwind, raise your centerboard between **1/4 to 1/2** to reduce drag and pull your crew weight aft to lift the bow.
🌪️ Wind Shear Scenarios & Trim Guide×
Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction over a physical distance (vertical or horizontal). On a sailboat, understanding shear gives you a massive speed and tactical advantage. Here are the key scenarios:
⛵ Vertical Wind Shear (Sails Twist Guide)
The Flying Scot masthead sits about 30 feet above the water. The wind at the top of the mast behaves differently than at the deck (6 feet) due to water/shore friction (surface drag).
Scenario A: High Vertical Shear (Stable Air / Cool Water)
• Atmosphere: Warm air over cool water prevents convective mixing. The wind aloft is fast and veered (shifted right) compared to the calm, backed (shifted left) wind at deck level.
• Action: Twist the sails open. Ease the vang and mainsheet slightly so the top of the main opens up to match the veered aloft wind, while the bottom stays sheeted in for the backed surface breeze. If sails are too flat, the top will stall or backwind!
Scenario B: Low Vertical Shear (Well-Mixed / Warm Water)
• Atmosphere: Cool air over warm water mixes the atmosphere thoroughly. Wind speed and direction are uniform from the deck up to the 30ft masthead.
• Action: Sheet in flat. Trim your sails tight and flat with minimal twist. There is no direction change from boom to masthead, so you can point high and hike hard.
⚡ Convective Directional Shear (Tactical Shifts)
Convective gusts mix down winds from 3,000+ feet aloft, bringing down their direction to the water and overriding surface drag.
Scenario C: Veered Upper-Levels (Right-Shifting Puffs)
• Trigger: Upper-level Transport Wind is shifted to the right of the surface wind.
• Gust Effect: Gusts will shift the wind to the RIGHT (Veer) as they hit the water.
• Tactical Rules:
🟢 Starboard Tack: Will get LIFTED (ride the shift to point higher!).
🔴 Port Tack: Will get HEADED (be ready to tack to Starboard to cash in!).
Scenario D: Backed Upper-Levels (Left-Shifting Puffs)
• Trigger: Upper-level Transport Wind is shifted to the left of the surface wind.
• Gust Effect: Gusts will shift the wind to the LEFT (Back) as they hit the water.
• Tactical Rules:
🟢 Port Tack: Will get LIFTED (ride the shift to point higher!).
🔴 Starboard Tack: Will get HEADED (be ready to tack to Port to cash in!).
